Intelligence Dashboard
NIG Composite · 5 Rings · Live System Status · —
NIG — Normalized Intelligence Grade
+28
MILD POSITIVE — Constructive but not risk-on
NIG = tanh(α₁×STRUCT + α₂×LANG + α₃×DEPLOY − α₄×FRAG + α₅×FRACT) × 100. Current reading driven by DEPLOY +0.71 (on-chain institutional flows accelerating) and STRUCT +0.44 (yield curve steepening). Offset by FRAG −0.38 (CRE exposure and private credit stress). Coefficient vintage: April 2026 editorial snapshot (LSTM retrain not yet deployed).
RISK-OFF ← → RISK-ON
-1000+100
a1 STRUCT+0.44 ± 0.28
a2 LANG+0.31 ± 0.14
a3 DEPLOY+0.71 ± 0.24
a4 FRAG-0.38 ± 0.22
a5 FRACT+0.22 ± 0.12
R1 — STRUCTURAL SIGNALS — 6 MODULES62
Structural Signals
YIELD CURVE — CURRENT ACCOUNT — MONETARY BASE — REER
2s10s Spread-18bp (inverted)
US Current Account-3.1% GDP
YCSI Score1.84 (Watch)
DXY Trend↓ Weakening
R2 — LANGUAGE DRIFT — 5 MODULES58
Language Drift
CENTRAL BANK NLP — REGULATORY TEXT — G20 COMMUNIQUÉS
Fed Hawkish Drift↓ Softening
BoJ Hawkish Drift↑ Accelerating
Policy Surprise Index0.42 (Moderate)
Uncertainty Lexicon+18% vs 12M avg
R3 — DEPLOYMENT TRACKING — 6 MODULES71
Deployment Tracking
ON-CHAIN FLOWS — CBDC ADOPTION — RWA TOKENIZATION
Inst. TVL 30-Day Change+34% (Accelerating)
CBDC CATS Score218/300 (Strong)
RWA Tokenized AUM$2.5B+ BUIDL
US RegClarity Factor1.25 (GENIUS Act)
R4 — FRAGILITY MAPPING — 5 MODULES44
Fragility Mapping
CRE EXPOSURE — PRIVATE CREDIT — BANK INTERCONNECT
SFI — Top 30 Banks1.61 (Watch Zone)
CRE Maturity 2026-27$1.5T Refinancing
PCSG — Private Credit0.38 (Elevated)
Basel IV Readiness11/42 Behind
R5 — FRACTURE DETECTION — 5 MODULES55
Fracture Detection
CORRELATION BREAKS — REGIME CLUSTERING — ORDER FLOW
Yen Carry CFS2.1s divergence
Dollar/Gold CorrelationBreaking down (1.4s)
GCS Score0.79 (Elevated)
Regime Distance1.8 (Watch)
Active Alerts
3 Critical · 4 Warning · 6 Informational · Updated every 4 hours
R5 FRACTURE: Yen Carry Trade Correlation Break — 2.1s
USD/JPY diverging from historical equity correlation by 2.1 standard deviations. $4T+ carry positions at risk of unwind if BoJ hikes to 0.75% in July as signaled. Cross-asset contagion probability: HIGH.
Updated: 14:00 UTC — Signal 81/100 — R5 FRACT
R4 FRAGILITY: CRE Maturity Wall — $1.5T Refinancing Pressure
Commercial real estate office maturities hitting 2026-2027 cycle. Sub-$100B banks with SFI above 1.6 are flagged. FDIC DIF Special Assessment #2 expected. 2-4 bank failures modeled by Q1 2027.
Updated: 12:00 UTC — Signal 79/100 — R4 FRAG
R1 STRUCT: Gulf SWF $48B Treasury Rotation — Structural Not Tactical
Saudi Arabia and UAE sovereign wealth funds reducing US Treasury exposure. Mahalanobis distance from historical reserve allocation cluster: 2.4 (fracture threshold: 1.5). SCFI = -0.72. This is generational.
Updated: 10:00 UTC — Signal 87/100 — R1 STRUCT
R4 FRAGILITY: Private Credit PCSG = 0.38 (Elevated)
BDC NAV discounts widening. PIK toggle elections increasing at mid-market portfolio companies. Covenant waiver frequency at 2024 peak levels. Watch: base rate coverage ratio deterioration at leveraged credits.
Updated: 08:00 UTC — R4 FRAG
R2 LANG: BoJ Language Drift +34% Hawkish — 6-Month Peak
Deputy Governor Himino's language shift detected: "broadening wage-price dynamics" is a 98th percentile hawkish signal in the BoJ corpus. Policy Surprise Index: 0.42. July hike probability: 64%.
Updated: 06:00 UTC — R2 LANG
R5 FRACT: Dollar/Gold Correlation Breaking — 1.4s Divergence
Historical negative correlation between DXY and gold is weakening. Both declining simultaneously. Suggests third-factor driving both: central bank reserve diversification. GCS: +0.38 (no decay, structural).
Updated: 04:00 UTC — R5 FRACT
R3 DEPLOY: GENIUS Act RegClarity Factor Updated to 1.25
US jurisdiction RegClarity upgraded from 0.75 → 1.25 following GENIUS Act enactment. ODV formula update applied. Expected effect: +12-18% on-chain institutional deployment velocity over next 90 days.
Updated: 02:00 UTC — R3 DEPLOY
Global Event Timeline
Chronological event log · All rings · May 28, 2026
MAY 28
14:20 UTC
14:20 UTC
BoJ Deputy Governor Himino signals July hike — "wage-price dynamics broadening"
Language Drift Ring fires at 98th percentile hawkish reading. R2 score update: +4 points. USD/JPY carry correlation fracture begins triggering R5 alert.
Signal 81
MAY 28
12:00 UTC
12:00 UTC
GENIUS Act enacted — US RegClarity factor upgraded from 0.75 to 1.25
Deployment Tracking Ring ODV formula parameter updated. Circle USDC and JPMorgan stablecoin now in regulatory green zone. Tether USDT modeling begins de facto exclusion scenario.
Signal 91
MAY 27
16:00 UTC
16:00 UTC
ECB June 5 meeting — Lagarde statement: "tariff pass-through material uncertainty"
Language Drift Ring: ECB uncertainty lexicon +22% vs 12M average. Policy Surprise Index: 0.38. Market now pricing 55% June cut probability, down from 72% three weeks ago.
Signal 68
MAY 26
08:00 UTC
08:00 UTC
SWF Capital Flow Alert: Gulf SWF $48B Treasury rotation confirmed — Q1 2026 TIC data
BIS locational banking statistics + IMF COFER update confirms structural reallocation. SCFI updated to -0.72. Mahalanobis distance from historical reserve allocation: 2.4s. R1 STRUCT alert fired.
Signal 87
MAY 25
20:00 UTC
20:00 UTC
Correlation Fracture: Dollar/Gold 1.4s divergence from 36-month average
CFS model fires: |ρ_current - ρ_36M| = 0.41, against σ_ρ = 0.29. Third-factor hypothesis: central bank reserve diversification driving both USD weakness and gold strength simultaneously.
Signal 76
MAY 24
14:00 UTC
14:00 UTC
BlackRock BUIDL $2.5B AUM milestone — Deployment Ring update
Tokenized treasury AUM crosses $2.5B. ODV formula: TVLinst 30-day change +34%. R3 DEPLOY ring score upgraded to 71. Fidelity and Franklin Templeton competing products confirmed for Q3 2026.
Signal 83
Intelligence Briefs
Top signals ranked by NIG impact — May 28, 2026
1
R5 FRACTURE — JAPAN — RATES
BoJ Hiking — $4 Trillion Yen Carry Trade Is Unwinding
The Bank of Japan's language shift to "broadening wage-price dynamics" represents the most consequential central bank signal in the current cycle. $4T+ in yen-funded carry positions globally are exposed if the July hike materializes. The correlation fracture between USD/JPY and equity markets is already firing at 2.1s. This is the most underpriced cross-asset risk on earth right now.
Signal 81/100 · Critical · R5 + R2
2
R3 DEPLOYMENT — US — REGULATORY
GENIUS Act: Stablecoin Framework Live · RegClarity 0.75→1.25
The first US federal stablecoin law is enacted. ODV formula updated: US RegClarity factor jumps from 0.75 to 1.25. Expected effect: institutional on-chain deployment velocity +12-18% over 90 days. Winners: JPMorgan, Circle, BNY Mellon. Losers: Tether (offshore structure conflicts with reserve requirements), DeFi front-ends serving US persons.
Signal 91/100 · Critical · R3
3
R1 STRUCTURAL — GULF — CAPITAL FLOWS
Gulf SWF $48B Treasury Rotation — SCFI = -0.72
Structural, not tactical. The Mahalanobis distance from historical reserve allocation cluster: 2.4s (fracture threshold: 1.5). Saudi Arabia and UAE SWFs moving to yuan-denominated bonds and JGBs. The SCFI formula returns -0.72 (risk reduction direction). Watch 10Y US Treasury yields for the feedback loop — this adds structural supply pressure at a time of record US fiscal deficits.
Signal 87/100 · Critical · R1
4
R4 FRAGILITY — US BANKING — CRE
CRE Maturity Wall — SFI > 1.6 at Exposed Banks. Failures by Q1 2027.
The $1.5T commercial real estate refinancing cycle (2025-2027) is hitting. Office maturities are the pressure point. Sub-$100B banks with CRE exposure above 25% of total assets are flagged (SFI above 1.6 = Watch). FDIC DIF Special Assessment #2 expected when 2-4 failures materialize. Mortgage rates tick 15-25bps on the assessment — the feedback loop hits retail borrowers.
Signal 79/100 — High — R4
5
R3 DEPLOYMENT — COMMODITIES — AI
Copper $10,200/t — AI Data Center Buildout Is the Real Demand Driver
Copper demand is not construction or EVs right now — it's AI data center buildout and grid electrification. The ODV ring R3 is tracking this as an on-chain infrastructure deployment signal. $12,000/t is the 18-month target in the NIG scenario model. At that level, US electric bills rise 7-11% nationally. TX, VA, AZ feel it first. This is a slow-burn consumer inflation story that hasn't hit headlines yet.
Signal 82/100 · Critical · R3 + R1
Oracle — Prediction Engine
Global predictions with cascading consequence chains — Community consensus — PCS: 0.71
GLOBAL — MONETARYResolves on trigger event
Federal Reserve first cut before Bitcoin reaches $120K?
Oracle methodology: PCS quality gate 0.68 (system 0.71) · community-weighted consensus · post-resolution calibration · public spec
If Fed cuts first: Dollar weakens, EM capital inflows improve, gold extends gains, BTC follows liquidity. If BTC first: risk-on forces Fed's hand — September cut becomes 85% priced. Both paths ultimately dovish. The Coin was used once on this question: it landed Fed first.
ASIA — JAPAN — CRITICALResolves Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Japan hikes to 0.75% before end of 2026?
Triggers R5 CFS (2.1σ yen carry) + R2 LDS · calibrated against 24M backtest 0.74 · institution map
If Yes (64%): Yen carry unwind accelerates. $4T+ positions reprice. Cross-asset volatility spike. Gold and Treasuries bid. R5 FRACT ring fires at CRITICAL level. If No (36%): JPY/USD toward 160, BoJ credibility under pressure, further intervention risk.
GLOBAL — GEOPOLITICSResolves Q4 2027
Dollar share of global reserves below 56% before end 2027?
If Yes: Global commodity pricing diversifies from USD. US Treasury financing costs structurally higher. Walmart import costs +2-4%. If No: BRICS+ rail remains niche — dollar hegemony holds another decade.
GLOBAL — DIGITAL ASSETSResolves Dec 31, 2026
Tokenized RWA market exceeds $50B total AUM by end of 2026?
If Yes (58%): On-chain treasury settlement viable for tier-2 banks. T+2 rails pressured. DTCC faces structural disintermediation in specific corridors. R3 ring score rises to 80+. If No: headline AUM masks 3-4 product concentration — institutional adoption overstated.
EM — GLOBALResolves Q4 2026
India overtakes Germany as 3rd largest economy by GDP before 2027?
If Yes (71%): MSCI India weight increases 2-3%. $25-40B passive inflows from EM funds. INR structurally stronger. Manufacturing FDI from G7 accelerates. If No: German recession deeper than expected — timeline shifts to 2028.
R1 — Structural Signals Ring
6 modules · Score: 62/100 · Watch Zone — Primary input: F-02 YCSI, F-07 SCFI
Analyzes the underlying macroeconomic architecture — fiscal positions, monetary base dynamics, yield curve geometry, and sovereign credit topology. The slow-moving tectonic layer. Score 62 = Watch Zone: structural stress visible but not fracturing. Primary concern: yield curve inversion (-18bp on 2s10s) and sovereign capital flow rotation (SCFI = -0.72).
M-01 — YIELD CURVE MONITOR
2s10s: -18bp (inverted) — 3M10Y: -42bp — Term Premium: 0.18%
YCSI = 1.84 → WATCH (threshold: 1.4)
M-02 — SOVEREIGN CREDIT SPREADS
US 5Y CDS: 42bp — Italy: 142bp — Turkey: 380bp
Within historical norms — No CRITICAL signal
M-03 — CURRENT ACCOUNT TRACKER
US: -3.1% GDP — Germany: +5.2% — China: +1.8%
US deficit widening — dollar structural headwind
M-07 — RESERVE COMPOSITION (SCFI)
Dollar share: 58.4% (↓ from 60.2% — 12M ago)
SCFI = -0.72 — Gulf SWF rotation confirmed
R2 — Language Drift Ring
5 modules · Score: 58/100 · Moderate Hawkish — Primary input: F-03 LDS, F-08 PSI
Semantic analysis of central bank communications across 8 major institutions. Tracks vocabulary frequency shifts — language changes before policy does. Current: BoJ language at 98th percentile hawkish. Fed language softening. ECB uncertainty lexicon rising (+22%). PSI = 0.42 (moderate surprise risk).
M-07 — FED NLP PARSER
Hawkish drift: ↓ -8% vs 12M avg — Dovish: ↑ +14%
LDS = -0.28 (softening) — September cut signal
M-07 — BOJ NLP PARSER
Hawkish drift: ↑ +34% vs 12M avg — 98th percentile
LDS = +0.71 (accelerating) — July hike signaled
M-08 — REGULATORY TEXT ANALYZER
GENIUS Act text: 94% constructive — MiCA enforcement: 72% prescriptive
US regulatory tone: most constructive since 2020
M-11 — POLICY SURPRISE TRACKER
PSI = 0.42 — Market-implied vs delivered: 68% accuracy YTD
Moderate surprise risk — ECB June 5 is key event
R3 — Deployment Tracking Ring
6 modules · Score: 71/100 · Positive · Primary input: F-04 ODV, F-09 CATS
Monitors on-chain institutional deployment: tokenized asset flows, CBDC test transactions, smart contract deployment velocity, stablecoin circulation, and cross-chain settlement patterns. Score 71 = most positive ring in the model. Driven by GENIUS Act RegClarity upgrade and BUIDL $2.5B milestone.
M-12 — ON-CHAIN INST. FLOW MONITOR
Institutional TVL 30D: +34% — ODV = 0.71 — RegClarity 1.25
Strong. GENIUS Act expected to accelerate further.
M-13 — RWA TOKENIZATION TRACKER
BUIDL: $2.5B+ — Total RWA AUM: ~$15B — Target: $50B by EOY
58% probability target reached — Oracle consensus
M-14 — CBDC ADOPTION ENGINE (CATS)
134 jurisdictions · Live: 11 · Pilot: 36 · CATS = 218/300
Strong global momentum. ISO 20022 interop is bottleneck.
M-15 — STABLECOIN SUPPLY MONITOR
USDT: $118B — USDC: $43B (+12% post-GENIUS) — Total: $163B
Tether offshore risk increasing under new framework
R4 — Fragility Mapping Ring
5 modules · Score: 44/100 · Elevated Risk — Primary input: F-05 SFI, F-10 PCSG
Systemic risk topology. Score 44 = most stressed ring in the model. Three simultaneous pressure points: CRE maturity wall ($1.5T), private credit stress (PCSG 0.38), and Basel IV readiness gaps (11/42 jurisdictions behind). This ring is the primary drag on the NIG composite.
M-19 — CRE MATURITY WALL TRACKER
$1.5T refinancing 2025-2027 — Office occupancy: 61% national avg
SFI > 1.6 at 7 sub-$100B banks — FDIC watch list
M-20 — PRIVATE CREDIT STRESS (PCSG)
PCSG = 0.38 (Elevated) — BDC NAV discounts: avg -14%
PIK toggle elections at 2024 peak — covenant waivers rising
M-22 — BASEL IV READINESS MONITOR
11/42 jurisdictions unprepared — Output floor: 72.5%
European banks disproportionately affected — Jan 2027 deadline
M-18 — BANKING INTERCONNECT MAP
Concentration score: 0.62 — Top 5 banks: 48% of system assets
Within historical norms but above 2019 baseline
R5 — Fracture Detection Ring
5 modules · Score: 55/100 · Watch Zone — Primary input: F-06 CFS, F-11 GCS
Early warning system for breaks in historical correlation regimes. Two active fractures detected: (1) USD/JPY carry correlation break at 2.1s — the highest reading in 3 years. (2) Dollar/Gold correlation breakdown at 1.4s. GCS = 0.79 from active geopolitical events. Score 55 = elevated watch, approaching critical threshold at 45.
M-23 — CORRELATION FRACTURE (CFS)
USD/JPY vs Equity: CFS = 2.1s (ALERT) — Dollar/Gold: 1.4s (Watch)
Yen carry fracture is highest reading since 2021
M-24 — REGIME CLUSTER ANALYZER
Current regime: "Late Cycle Transition" — Mahalanobis dist: 1.8
Between "Late Expansion" and "Early Contraction" clusters
M-25 — GEOPOLITICAL CONTAGION (GCS)
GCS = 0.79 — Active: Houthi +0.41 — Gulf SWF +0.38 (no decay)
GCS decay rate λ = 0.08/day applied to Houthi component
M-26 — ORDER FLOW ANOMALY
Anomaly score: 0.44 — Gold buying: above-normal central bank flows
Consistent with SCFI rotation signal from R1 STRUCT
27 Active Modules
Editorial snapshot modules · refresh cycle: 4h · last seed run: —
| Module ID | Name | Ring | Last Value | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-01 | Yield Curve Monitor | R1 STRUCT | YCSI = 1.84 | WATCH |
| M-02 | Sovereign Credit Spreads | R1 STRUCT | US 5Y CDS: 42bp | EDITORIAL |
| M-03 | Current Account Tracker | R1 STRUCT | US: -3.1% GDP | EDITORIAL |
| M-04 | Monetary Base Analyzer | R1 STRUCT | M2 velocity: 1.42 | EDITORIAL |
| M-05 | Reserve Composition Monitor | R1 STRUCT | USD: 58.4% ↓ | EDITORIAL |
| M-06 | REER / Terms of Trade | R1 STRUCT | DXY REER: 108.2 | EDITORIAL |
| M-07 | Central Bank NLP Parser | R2 LANG | BoJ LDS: +0.71 | EDITORIAL |
| M-08 | Regulatory Text Analyzer | R2 LANG | GENIUS: 94% constructive | EDITORIAL |
| M-09 | G20 Communiqu — Scorer | R2 LANG | Uncertainty: +18% vs avg | EDITORIAL |
| M-10 | IMF/BIS Publication Monitor | R2 LANG | Fragmentation: HIGH signal | EDITORIAL |
| M-11 | Policy Surprise Tracker (PSI) | R2 LANG | PSI = 0.42 | EDITORIAL |
| M-12 | On-Chain Institutional Flow Monitor | R3 DEPLOY | ODV = 0.71 · RegClarity 1.25 | EDITORIAL |
| M-13 | RWA / Tokenization Tracker | R3 DEPLOY | BUIDL: $2.5B+ | EDITORIAL |
| M-14 | CBDC Adoption Engine (CATS) | R3 DEPLOY | CATS = 218/300 | EDITORIAL |
| M-15 | Stablecoin Supply Monitor | R3 DEPLOY | Total: $163B | EDITORIAL |
| M-16 | DEX / DeFi Flow Analyzer | R3 DEPLOY | Uniswap v4: $1.8B/day | EDITORIAL |
| M-17 | Smart Contract Deploy Velocity | R3 DEPLOY | EVM deploys: +28% MoM | EDITORIAL |
| M-18 | Banking Interconnect Map | R4 FRAG | Concentration: 0.62 | EDITORIAL |
| M-19 | CRE Maturity Wall Tracker | R4 FRAG | $1.5T wall — SFI 1.61 | WATCH |
| M-20 | Private Credit Stress (PCSG) | R4 FRAG | PCSG = 0.38 | WATCH |
| M-21 | Liquidity Mismatch Scanner | R4 FRAG | Score: 0.44 (Moderate) | EDITORIAL |
| M-22 | Basel Capital Buffer Monitor | R4 FRAG | 11/42 behind | WATCH |
| M-23 | Correlation Fracture Detector (CFS) | R5 FRACT | Yen: 2.1s ALERT | ALERT |
| M-24 | Regime Cluster Analyzer | R5 FRACT | Dist: 1.8 (Watch) | WATCH |
| M-25 | Geopolitical Contagion Engine (GCS) | R5 FRACT | GCS = 0.79 | WATCH |
| M-26 | Order Flow Anomaly Detector | R5 FRACT | Anomaly: 0.44 | EDITORIAL |
| M-27 | NIG Composite Engine | COMPOSITE | NIG = +28 | EDITORIAL |
Institution-Linked Metrics
GCS · CATS · SFI · WEF labor matrix — cross-link Institutions map
GCS — Geopolitical Contagion (F-11)
GCS = 0.79 (Elevated · threshold 0.65)
Houthi Red Sea +0.41 (decay λ=0.08/day)
Gulf SWF rotation +0.38 (structural, no decay)
Houthi Red Sea +0.41 (decay λ=0.08/day)
Gulf SWF rotation +0.38 (structural, no decay)
CATS — CBDC Adoption (F-09)
SFI — Systemic Fragility (F-05)
CRE maturity wall $1.5T · SFI > 1.6 at exposed banks
R4 ring score 44 (most stressed)
Maps IMF DSA logic to bank-level balance sheets
R4 ring score 44 (most stressed)
Maps IMF DSA logic to bank-level balance sheets
WEF Jobs → R3 ODV linkage
Markov labor matrix (Human/Machine/Hybrid/Displaced)
When GCS > 0.65 AND ODV > 0.8: displacement +50–75% vs baseline
Current ODV = 0.71 · RegClarity 1.25
When GCS > 0.65 AND ODV > 0.8: displacement +50–75% vs baseline
Current ODV = 0.71 · RegClarity 1.25
Full WEF risk-graph and IMF Taylor/DSA formalizations: institutions.html. Public methodology: methodology.html.
12 Signal Formulas
Documented score engine · current readings from editorial snapshot · α coefficients (Apr 2026 vintage, not live ML retrain)
F-01 — COMPOSITE
Signal Score Composite (SSC)
SSC = Σ(wᵢ × Rᵢ) / Σwᵢ
w = (0.25, 0.15, 0.25, 0.20, 0.15) across R1–R5
Current: NIG = +28 — MILD POSITIVE
F-02 — STRUCT
Yield Curve Stress Index (YCSI)
YCSI = |2Y-10Y| + |3M-10Y|
+ (TermPremium - 0.4)
+ (InversionDuration × 0.3)
Current: 1.84 → WATCH (threshold 1.4)
F-03 — LANG
Language Drift Score (LDS)
LDS = (H_t/H_{t-12})·W_hawk
+ (U_t/U_{t-12})·W_uncert
- (D_t/D_{t-12})·W_dove
BoJ: +0.71 (hawkish) — Fed: -0.28 (dovish)
F-04 — DEPLOY
On-Chain Deployment Velocity (ODV)
ODV = (ΔTVL_inst/TVL_inst,30d)
× (1 + ln(NewContracts))
× RegClarity_factor
US RegClarity: 0.75 → 1.25 (GENIUS Act) — ODV = 0.71
F-05 — FRAG
Systemic Fragility Index (SFI)
SFI = Interconnect
× (1 + CRE/Assets)
× Liquidity_mismatch
/ Capital_buffer
Flagged banks: SFI > 1.6 — Watch threshold: 1.4
F-06 — FRACT
Correlation Fracture Score (CFS)
CFS = |ρ_current - ρ_36M|
× (1/σ_ρ)
× Regime_distance
Yen carry: 2.1σ ALERT — Gold/USD: 1.4σ WATCH
F-07 — STRUCT
Sovereign Capital Flow Index (SCFI)
SCFI = Σ(SWF_flow × Origin_risk)
/ Global_reserve_total
× Directionality_score
SCFI = -0.72 — Gulf SWF risk reduction confirmed
F-09 — DEPLOY
CBDC Adoption Trajectory (CATS)
CATS_j = Phase_weight
+ (Txvol/GDP × 100)
+ Interop_score
- Failure_penalty
Global CATS = 218/300 — ISO 20022 gap: 34 jurisdictions
F-10 — FRAG
Private Credit Stress (PCSG)
PCSG = (BDC_discount/Par)
× PIK_rate
× Covenant_waivers
/ Coverage_ratio
PCSG = 0.38 — ELEVATED — BDC avg discount: -14%
F-11 — FRACT
Geopolitical Contagion Score (GCS)
GCS = Σ_events [(severity × exposure)
+ (sanction × vulnerability)]
× e^(-λt), λ = 0.08/day
GCS = 0.79 — Houthi (decay) + Gulf SWF (no decay)
F-12 — COMPOSITE
Prediction Calibration Score (PCS)
PCS = Accuracy
× Sharpness
× (1 - Overconfidence)
Target: PCS > 0.68
Current PCS = 0.71 — Above quality gate — Backtest: 0.74
F-NIG — COMPOSITE
Normalized Intelligence Grade (NIG)
NIG = tanh(
0.28·STRUCT + 0.14·LANG
+ 0.24·DEPLOY - 0.22·FRAG
+ 0.12·FRACT) × 100
NIG = +28 — MILD POSITIVE — α vintage: Apr 2026 (editorial)
System Architecture
Production edge on Cloudflare · editorial ring/NIG snapshots · honest deployment status
LIVE verified in production
PARTIAL some paths live
EDITORIAL documented formulas, snapshot values
PLANNED roadmap — not deployed
Group A — Live Production (Cloudflare)
Worker xxxiii-gmiie · Pages · GMIIE_LIVE KV
Edge Worker
xxxiii-gmiie routes /api/* on xxxiii.io — live-desk cron, fraud fallback engine, IPFS pin, GMIIE agent
LIVE
KV Storage
Cloudflare KV namespace
LIVE
GMIIE_LIVE — markets, engine, digest, legislative, fraud-meta keysPages + IPFS
Static desks in
IPFS cron: 8h · Pages: deploy-on-push
LIVE
public/ · Pinata JSON snapshots · triple-anchor hookIPFS cron: 8h · Pages: deploy-on-push
Live API
/api/gmiie/live/markets · engine · digest · legislative · jurisdiction · global-governance · status · /api/gmiie/ask · /api/tts · /api/fraud/analyze · /api/ipfs/latest · content-ledger routes
LIVE
Markets Feed
CoinGecko BTC/ETH/USDT via live-desk — KV-backed with stale fallback
Cron: every 4h
LIVE
Cron: every 4h
Fraud Engine
Deterministic scoring in worker-proxy/fraud-engine — proxied at /api/fraud/analyze with KV score cache
LIVE
Voice Desk
institutional HD voice synthesis at /api/tts · smart narration prep · browser Web Speech fallback in-engine
PARTIAL
GMIIE Ingestion Modules
7 modules in services/grok-agents/scrapers/ — federal bills, states, CBDC news, stablecoins, oracle inputs, fraud narratives, global governance (seed + public JSON feeds)
Legislative refresh: Mon 08 UTC · digest: 00/06/12/18 UTC
PARTIAL
Legislative refresh: Mon 08 UTC · digest: 00/06/12/18 UTC
x402 Metering
Content ledger meter events at /api/gmiie/meter/event — publishing OS intake (not all endpoints gated)
PARTIAL
Document Intelligence
Sibling stack on docs.unykorn.org — 6-agent agreement pipeline, SHA-256 proofs, optional XRPL/IPFS · System map on xxxiii.io
document-intelligence.html →
LIVE
document-intelligence.html →
Group B — Editorial Intelligence Engine
Formulas documented · values from seed JSON refreshed into KV
Ring Engine R1–R5
Structural, Language, Deploy, Fragility, Fracture scores — sourced from /data/gmiie-engine-snapshot.json via live-desk; not live pandas/statsmodels compute
Snapshot refresh: 4h (with digest cron)
EDITORIAL
Snapshot refresh: 4h (with digest cron)
Formula Layer F01–F12
NumPy/scipy spec in canonical docs — UI shows documented equations and current snapshot readings
EDITORIAL
NIG Composite (M-27)
tanh-weighted composite — snapshot NIG +28 served at /api/gmiie/live/engine with SHA-256 fingerprint
EDITORIAL
Oracle Predictions
Prediction cards + PCS metadata — editorial seed + scraper inputs; not a live prediction market
EDITORIAL
PCS Calibration (F-12)
PCS = 0.71 snapshot · backtest 0.74 documented · automated post-resolution scoring not yet wired
EDITORIAL
Group C — Roadmap / Phase 2
Canonical blueprint — not in worker-proxy deploy
spaCy NLP Pipeline
Central-bank language drift tokenizer — documented in canonical spec
PLANNED
Celery Task Queue
Python ring processors off-edge — services/queue exists; not wired to production cron
PLANNED
On-Chain Indexer
Polygon/ETH node indexer + XRPL real-time — IPFS anchor live; chain indexer not deployed
PLANNED
LSTM NIG Weights
TensorFlow 24M rolling train · 90-day retrain cycle
Target vintage: Apr 2026
PLANNED
Target vintage: Apr 2026
Live Ring Compute
Python pandas/statsmodels R1–R5 processors on 4h cycle — replaces editorial snapshot
PLANNED
For auditors — methodology, fingerprint, refresh cycles
Public methodology and authenticity pages describe what is measured vs. illustrated. Full canonical specifications (F-01–F-12, desk playbooks, architecture blueprint) are available to partners on request.
Methodology · Authenticity · Query Console · Architecture (this page)
Refresh cycles (production cron)
Markets: every 4h
Engine snapshot → KV: 4h (digest path)
Digest: 00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC
Legislative + global governance: Mon 08 UTC
IPFS intelligence pin: every 8h
Markets: every 4h
Engine snapshot → KV: 4h (digest path)
Digest: 00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC
Legislative + global governance: Mon 08 UTC
IPFS intelligence pin: every 8h
Engine fingerprint
Loading from /api/gmiie/live/engine…
Loading from /api/gmiie/live/engine…
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